ReMax Canada recently came out with their quarter century report where they noted house values have increased 453% over the past 25 years.

Annualized, this works out to somewhere around 7% which is wonderful news (or maybe not?) for those who already own a property. For those who have yet to purchase a home, do some quick math and youll see that 7% of the average GTA home is a crap load of money! Even if you were to save a substantial of amount for a down payment, the annual rise equates to $93,418.00 at the current average house price. That amount is more than most peoples take home pay. 

So what’s up next for the upcoming 25 years? One can argue pretty much the same if you were to solely look towards immigration and Canada’s stated population growth goals. 

During the 25 year period noted, the GTA’s population grew by 45% and as of 2021 stands at 6,255,000. In 1996 the population was somewhere around 4,225,000.

Canada’s total population as of 2021 is 38,067,903 and we are hitting our immigration targets quite well. Apparently a super expensive housing market and overburdened health care system are not enough of a deterrent for those looking to settle here.

Our governments goal is to add 411,000 in 2022 and 421,000 in 2023. 40% of theae immigrants end up in the GTA. That’s roughly 160,000 new people per year adding to an already expensive GTA housing market.

If we settle in to an average over the past 25 years on immigration numbers , then approximately 10 million people will be added, beefing up the GTA’s population to just under 13 million residents.

So what does this mean for future  housing demand and real estate prices? Well can anyone logically expect prices to be 450% higher? That would me an average GTA price of $6,005,448.00! Yikes!!

There needs to be a massive amount of building, in all forms, across the province. Garden suites, laneway houses, eliminate iclusionary zoning and permit more triplexes, fourplexes etc. Condos, we’ll need more and we’ll need to find a way to make them both affordable and desirable for families. Creativity and the removal of nimbyism is definitely going to be needed. And strong political leadership and the stubborn will to do so. Otherwise, Toronto (and the GTA) will cater only to the wealthy when it becomes to being able to buy a house. The rest, your children, their children, could be faced with a lifetime of renting.