Every year the Toronto Real Estate Board provides a market outlook on the upcoming year. TREB recently released their 56 page report. In this annual report a host of topics are covered, a few of particular interest to me stood out.

Of course I’m always interested in the forecast on the number of sales transactions and average prices. But this year I was really excited to read about the “missing middle” on housing and what is going on in the crazy the rental market.

In 2018 we ended the year with 77,375 sales (down from 2017’s total of 92,624) and the average sales price declined -4.3% to sit at $787,195. These stats are for the GTA and not Toronto proper only.

In 2019, TREB’s putting the sales volume at 83,000 transactions and a sales average $820,000, which is close to the 2017 average ($822,000). To be noted, the transaction prediction is based on the 5yr interest rate being more affordable then it was in 2018.

In summary, average prices will increase +4.5% and sales activity to increase +7.8%. This would be positive overall if it were to come true as we’ve been experiencing declining sales over the past two years and 2018’s numbers were the lowest in the GTA since the recession year of 2008.

The “Missing Middle” a term TREB states as: “includes housing unit types
that fall between a single-detached or semi-detached house and a high-rise apartment building (defined as five or more storeys). These types include ownership and rental townhouses, duplexes, laneway homes and low-rise apartments (triplexes, quadraplexes, stacked townhouses and garden
apartments).”

These types of properties are hopeful in that they will bring desperately needed affordable housing to the city, which I’m all for. Relaxing zoning laws so that laneway housing, triplexes and quadplex’s can be built would provide much needed affordable housing options. We have enough high rise rental units and adding mid rise and low rise options would also add to the communities that they are built in. I really hope we start to see major headway in this regard.

Onto the rental market outlook. Outside of the report that rental rates for 1 and 2 bedroom units across the GTA, had increased around 10%, and the negative affects on the rental market brought on by the housing policy changes put in place by the Liberal Government in 2017, the thing that rocked me the most, were results from a November 2018 Ipsos survey.

In Its survey of homeowners they “suggest that many investment property owners are seriously considering whether or not they  will continue to hold on to their investment beyond the next year. The majority of investment property owners in the GTA currently have their properties tenanted or their properties are available for rent. In other words, they are actively providing rental stock in an extremely tight GTA rental market. However, the survey results also suggest that almost two-thirds of investment property owners in the region are likely to list their investment property for sale over the next year, including 22 per cent  of these  investors  who are very likely to list their property for sale.”

WOW! That is a potentially huge hit on the availability of available rental housing already in place. What does this mean for the sale of new condo investments (most of which are targeted towards investors)?

It makes sense as the gap between carrying costs and rental income, especially in a world of rent control, make it difficult to actually turn positive cash flow. Yes, appreciation in values have helped investors but if that is all you are banking on, then to me you are more of a speculator than an investor.

It looks like 2019 could turn out to be a very exciting year in the real estate market. I’m really excited for the advancement of laneway housing and hopefully an influx to building triplexes and quad units.