Market Update: Good, Bad and some Ugly

With annual average price gains up 8.25% in October 2017 over the same month last year, the 416 area of Toronto continues to be on fire with healthy increases in value. But if we dig down and take a closer look into the numbers, a different story starts to appear.

Detached values are actually off a very nominal -1.1% year over year. Semi-detached prices are up a healthy 5.2%, Townhouses are up 8% and the condo market in Toronto is on fire, up a whopping 20.9% year-over-year!

Number of Sales are down about -21%, new listings are up almost 12%, active listings are up 78.5% and the days on market has increased upwards of about 38%. These statistics take into account the entire TREB coverage area (416+905) and there certainly is a bigger slowdown happening in most of the 905 area which skews the 416 a bit.

For the first time since I can recall, monthly transactions of resale condo units out totalled those of detached, semi-detached houses and townhouses, combined!

Total sales are down, inventory is up and days on market have increased, albeit with more condo sales this could add to the total as many condos take more time to firm up a sale. But this is a more accurate reflection of the overall market pulse.

The market is more balanced (Buyers, this is what you’ve been whining about for years, where are you?!) and in some neighbourhoods and streets, demand still trumps supply. This means that multiple offers for some are still extremely commonplace. But for most, plan your strategy on both the sale side and the buy side carefully, because the times are a changing.

I still think we have a supply issue more pronounced than the demand side. The Federal government has increased their target for immigrants from 2017’s 300,000 and we all know that a strong majority end up in Vancouver and the GTA. These people need places to live. As long as the supply isn’t adequately addressed, then it will continue to put pressure on rising values and rental rates in the housing market.

Conflicting information it seems and I should add that some analysts think the drop in activity (down 19,000 YTD) from last years record pace is mostly due to caution around the numerous government changes of late. Could be? But it’s crucial to know what is going on when you are in the market to buy or sell.

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